HOW VIOLENT ARE UNDOCUMENT IMMIGRANTS?
MIAMI — The war over illegal immigration in this country is too often waged via hyperbole.
After years of covering immigration, I've found only one absolute certainty: the truth always lies somewhere in the middle. And so is the case with the latest battle that started with Donald Trump's reaction to the murder of Kathryn Steinle , allegedly killed by an undocumented immigrant in San Francisco.
Trump, the billionaire Republican presidential hopeful, has used that killing as proof that he has been right all along about undocumented immigrants, that they bring with them a level of criminality far higher than native-born Americans. Immigration advocates have fought back, arguing that this was an isolated instance far from representative of the entire population of 11 million undocumented immigrants.
So who's right? Let's look at their numbers.
Supporters of the Trump theory have been pointing to data from the U.S. Sentencing Commission that found undocumented immigrants account for disturbingly high levels of violent crime. While they represent just 3.5% of the U.S. population, undocumented immigrants represented 7% of federal prison sentences following convictions on charges of sexual abuse, 9% of murders, 12% of assaults and 30% of kidnappings in 2013.
Case closed, right? Far from it.
Only a tiny percentage of the nation’s violent crimes are handled by the federal court system. Yes, undocumented immigrants accounted for 9.2% of federal murder convictions in 2013, but that represents a grand total of eight murder cases. When you consider that the FBI estimates there were 14,196 murders in the U.S. in 2013, those few cases handled by the federal court system don’t quite register as a reliable sample set.
The same goes for the other violent crimes cited in those statistics. Add the fact that undocumented immigrants are far more likely to be caught up in the federal court system because of non-violent immigration violations, and the numbers shouldn't mean much.
But when updated data for 2014 were released last week, largely mirroring the previous year's figures, many pounced on them as proof of rampant crime by undocumented immigrants. Rep. Mo Brooks , R-Ala., cited the data in a column last week, and the numbers received prominent coverage by conservative outlets such as Breitbart.
On the other side, many immigration advocates have been pointing to a report also released last week by the American Immigration Council. That study used different kinds of data that led to the same conclusion, that undocumented immigrants commit violent crimes at a far lower rate than native-born Americans.
First there's the big picture. From 1990 to 2013, the number of undocumented immigrants in the country tripled from 3.5 million to 11.2 million. Yet during that time, violent crime rates dropped 48% nationwide, according to the report. Since undocumented immigrants make up such a small percentage of the population, it's impossible to draw a straight conclusion from those numbers, so let's see what else they've got..
The authors also looked at incarceration rates for males between 18 and 39, since most crimes are committed by males in that age range. Using data from the 2010 Census , the report found that 1.6% of foreign-born males are in jail, compared with 3.3% of the native-born population. Researchers have long questioned the accuracy of Census data for prisoners, since the information they get from inmates is often incomplete, and immigrants could lie out of fear of being deported. But the authors found similar trends going back to 1980, so that helps bolster their case.
Finally, the authors tried to isolate undocumented immigrants through a variety of narrow studies conducted in recent decades. In each case, they found evidence to show that undocumented immigrants were less likely to commit violent crimes than their native-born neighbors.
So where does that leave us?
The reporter in me wishes there was a more definitive way of comparing crime rates for undocumented immigrants and the American-born population. But using the data we have, it seems impossible to responsibly claim that those immigrants are more likely to commit crimes than their American-born neighbors.
Don't trust me? How about the Center for Immigration Studies , which opposes any kind of plan to grant legal status to undocumented immigrants and regularly testifies in Congress against them.
"There's no evidence that immigrants are either more or less likely to commit crimes than anyone else in the population," Janice Kephart, a CIS researcher, said last weekon the PBS NewsHour.
In the world of the immigration debate, that's as definitive as it gets.
Hmmm...so then....people are people, whomever they are? What a novel idea.